American Idol

American Idol 12 – Elimination Order Prediction

It’s that time of year again when we predict the American Idol elimination order! A lot of fans think that a girl will win this year and that the producers have rigged the competition to produce a female winner finally after 5 years. Will it happen?

In the past I’ve used many methods to come up with this list (crowd-source, voting, etc) but this season, I’ve decided to just use my brain and think. The one problem we face is the possibility of the judges’ save, so we can’t really have a “normal” prediction order. I’ve just added a couple of names who I think the save will be used on this year and ranked the contestants the way I see best.

Here’s my prediction order with some notes:

10. Amber Holcomb

Amber could go out 8-10 and I think she will be in the Bottom 3 for sure in the first week. There isn’t much wiggle room for her specially with Candice Glover taking the spotlight from her. She needs to nail her first performance to buy herself a couple of weeks of TV time.

9. Burnell Taylor

Like Amber, I see Burnell going out 8-10. Again, just not much room to maneuver given that Curtis Finch Jr is getting the “great singer” edit. I don’t see Burnell visiting the Bottom 3 often, but when he gets Bottom 3, he’ll be out.

8. Devin Velez

Devin could go out 8-10, and in fact he may be a surprise first elimination. I just got David Hernandez flashbacks with Devin. If Devin sings in the middle of the pack this week, I think he’s gone. I’ve placed him higher than Amber and Burnell because I’ve enjoyed his Spanglish performances on the show and want more (but not too much).

7. Lazaro Arbos

Lazaro will be in the Bottom 3 almost every week. But we will vote for him until our fingers can’t do it anymore and when Lazaro’s time is up. #7 is also the time that the judges’ save starts looming so we might see some weirdness at this point in the competition. Basically I just don’t see Lazaro leaving early or making it too far, so this position seems about right for him.

6. Janelle Arthur

The fact that she’s in the Top 10 means that Janelle won’t go out early despite some bad performances in the semi-finals. She’s classic cannon fodder that makes it to the middle of the finals in order to prop up the better singers or to produce a shocking result.

Judges Save:

The only person that I see the judges using the save on is Kree Harrison. I think she’ll make a visit to the Bottom 3 early (maybe 9 or 8) and then when she gets voted off mid-finals, they will save her. Other possibilities are Candice Glover and Paul Jolley but my money’s on Kree.

5. Curtis Finch Jr

I’m actually upset that I’m putting him this high, but he’s been getting the “great singer” edit and those singers normally end in the top half of the finals. By the time he reaches this point, everyone will be so sick of his face on TV, we will all be relieved and say amen.

4. Angie Miller

Angie is the front-runner so that adds some doubts in my mind that she will win. My only issue is how they will use her as a shock elimination. If there’s a judges save it makes things complicated, but landing at #4 would be shocking enough I think.

3. Candice Glover

Placing this high will be Candice’s reward for bringing the black female diva back on American Idol. She won’t win, but she will place high, like they always do on this show.

2. Kree Harrison

I think Kree has a great chance of winning — [highlight]her name alone is a star’s name[/highlight] — but it’s really hard to form a critical mass of fans around a female singer. She also seems old-fashioned which doesn’t help her case. I expect the show to try really hard though to make her win, but in the end, I think sausage will triumph.

1. Paul Jolley

Paul will go into stealth mode this week, then blam, he’s your next American Idol. The older female audience will crave for a guy to root for all season and since he’s the only viable one, he’ll literally cruise to the finals.

So what do you guys think? Will a girl still win this season or will traditional Idol voting patterns prevail? Is Angie Miller really going to win it all like everyone is predicting?

Sound off!

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