American Idol

American Idol 11 – Elimination Order Prediction

Here’s my prediction for the elimination order for American Idol 11. I’m not going to crowdsource this season — I’m using my own brain! I’ve listed the contestants in order of how I think they will finish, followed by a range of positions I think they can get eliminated in.

I’m always wrong, so if this list looks to good to be true, it probably is.

13. Jeremy Rosado

Jeremy gave a touching Wild Card performance and seems like a nice guy. However, I don’t think he is talented enough to make the tour. He’ll have to cry every week to get voted through, and I don’t think he’ll be able to sustain his tears for three weeks. Range: 13-11.

12. Erika Van Pelt

Erika had the best Wild Card performance but the other girls are more popular than her or are more favored by the producers (ex: Shannon Magrane). She’s a bit of a clone of Elise Testone, and Elise already got the pimp spot so the best Erika can hope for is 11. Range: 12-11.

11. Jermaine Jones

Jermaine was voted in by the viewers but right now he seems to be a novelty act – even if Jimmy Iovine said he would listen to an entire album of Jermaine’s voice. (Really? I didn’t know Jimmy was such a masochist.) I think that Jermaine might be able to give a memorable performance that might earn him a place on the tour, but that would be at the expense of Deandre Brackensick or Joshua Ledet both of whom I think will be able to produce stand out performances of their own in the next three weeks. Range: 13-9.

10. Deandre Brackensick

Poor Deandre. He had to sing in the Wild Card which I think hurt his ego. Hopefully he’ll be able to bounce back, but there is a lot of indication that he is not ready for primetime and he’s going to make a lot of mistakes in the coming weeks. I think his signature hair and falsetto will earn him a spot on the tour, barely. Range: 11-8.

9. Shannon Magrane

Shannon will most likely be in the bottom 3 for a couple of weeks, but she’ll make the tour. She’s the Katie Stevens of the season — the one the show hopes will do well (for the sake of tween girls everywhere) but ultimately will fail. Range: 10-8.

8. Heejun Han

Heejun deserves to go on tour. He single-handedly saved American Idol ratings during Hollywood Week even if his singing is not stellar. I predict the way the show will handle Heejun will be very messy. We might see some really bad jokes that people will complain about that will hasten Heejun’s exit. Range: 9-7.

7. Joshua Ledet

Joshua has a leg up (or is it two legs up?) on Deandre for the crown of male black diva on the show. He won’t get criticized until most of the fodder are gone, and then he’s outta here. Range: 8-4.

6. Skylar Laine

Skylar won’t come into danger of elimination until about top 7 or so. Her main problem at least at the moment of this writing is that Hollie and Jessica are far more popular than her. She’s also not the type of country singer that a general audience might be attracted to. Range: 8-4.

5. Colton Dixon

The Adam Lambert of the season without Adam’s vocals or unrestrained sex appeal. He’ll coast along and then it’s over. Range: 8-4.

4. Elise Testone

I’ve placed Elise high on the list because she was given the pimp spot over Jessica on the first day. This shows how much confidence the show has in her. There’s a possibility that she might get an Alexis Grace elimination (in place of Erika), but she’s too popular now for that to happen (I hope). Range: 6-3.

3. Jessica Sanchez

She’s the one to beat! And she will be beaten. I think that she’ll be rewarded with a homecoming in San Diego in a few weeks for her powerhouse vocals but winning is not in the cards for her in my opinion. The Southern states still control the votes on American Idol and even moreso this season with the decline of urban viewers. Range: 4-2.

2. Hollie Cavanagh

In one week of voting, Hollie is popular without the benefit of pimping. It can only get better for Hollie week after week. Range: 3-2.

1. Phillip Phillips

Obviously he’s going to win. I really do like Phillip and would be very happy when he is crowned the winner in a few weeks. Range: 1.

Feel free to debate this list in the comments.

American Idol 11  Elimination Order Prediction

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72 comments
Zsusk
Zsusk

@rickey Wow! You just about nailed the whole season! Of course, the Jermaine elimination threw things off a bit, I believe.

rub3n_roxx
rub3n_roxx

@rickey Jessica didn't have a chance of winning. The atmosphere in Nokia theatre was toward Phillip. Girls went insane! It was awesome, lol

markboyd26
markboyd26

my top 3 this season. hollie, jessica and colton,

Topkat311
Topkat311

I predict a 2 guy final, Colton  & Phillip. Don't underestimate Colton, he's the David Cook in this competition. He almost made Top 24 last year, but missed out. He's got tons of fans... It's his to lose! But I do think that Phillip Phillips will be the winner of Idol11

dorkdumb
dorkdumb

id rather wait for their performance this week before id come up with my list considering that most of them generally didnt do well last week...

jbeeeb
jbeeeb

13.  Jeremy Rasado - Seems like a nice guy.  Hits some nice notes, but I think that the votes that might go for him will be split among others like Jessica and Josh.

12.  Jermaine Jones - The next nice guy to fall.  Has a great voice, but it is a niche voice.  Jermaine's stay is going to depend on themes.  If he can find songs that fit his voice he might be able to stay.  But I don't see a lot of "Old Man River" in the future.

11.  Ericka Van Pelt - Two female power rockers.  Hate to say it but of the two Elise is better on the eyes.  She stays while Ericka goes.

10.  Heejun Han - Sort of a one act pony.  Nice voice but not much more and by this time we need to see more. 9.   Shannon Magrane.  Shannon may have been better served by waiting a few years to enter.  If she shows growth in the first weeks she could stay longer, but right now some of her decisions show her youth (like the prom dress she wore last week). 

8.   Deandre Brackensick - I think Deandre is a better performer than Heejun, but sort of the same story.  We need to see more out of him than falsetto.  We also need to see some power in his voice.  Last, we need to see him stop messing with his hair.  It is really annoying.

7.  Joshua Ledet - I like Joshua.  But there is just some quirkiness about him that isn't endearing and I think that spells the end for him.

6.  Colton Dixon - To many other top performers here to keep Colton in.  Time for him to leave.

5.  Skylar Laine - Skylar has managed to last this long as the only true country singer, but now the talent is too good and she is shown the way out.

4.  Elise Testone - These last four are hard.  Elise and Hollie will be competing for the same vote and I predict that Hollie gets it.  It could go the other way though.

3.  Philip Phillips - We already have Dave Matthews.  A top artist traditionally goes at this point, and this time I think it is Philip. 

2.  Hollie Cavanaugh - The finals will be very interesting with our blonde/British turned American singer and a dark/hispanic singer.

1.  Jessica Sanchez - If her voice holds up just too many skills to not win.

bbshadow
bbshadow

Sad to say but AI will not allow a minority to win that's the truth. Adam Lambert could have been the first knowing that he's jewish. Prejudice is what I see while reading other people comment. Latinos, Asians, Jewish will not get the chance to really win cause majority don' t want to even though I want my girl Jessica or even Jeremy to win. Sick of all the past winners they don't seem to make it big anyway.

djfabian
djfabian

Skylar WILL BE IN THE FINALE...  :)

bryanthemeerkat
bryanthemeerkat

Maybe it's just me, but I didn't think Hollie was that good...? I don't think she'll get that far, at all. Maybe, like, top 5 or 6. But I wasn't impressed with her performance...at all.

doobeedoo
doobeedoo

Joshua Ledet will win American Idol.  

 

You all think he's too nelly to win, but he has the best voice and he knows his strengths as a singer, and so should choose the right songs.  

 

 

J@M
J@M

I do not get the hype about Hollie Cavanagh? She is not even a good singer, I mean Shannon and Skylar are better singers than her. But I am still WONDERING how Jermaine Jones is in the Top 13, so I am picking him as the first casualty of this season. One thing is certain: A boy and a girl will battle it out in the finals!

katekt
katekt

My list ... :))  13.Jeremy  12.Jermaine  11.Erika  10.Shannon  9.Deandre  8.Heejun  7.Joshua  6.Skylar  5.Elise  4.Colton  3.Jessica  2.Phillip  1.Hollie <3

jake8899
jake8899

Jessica won't win, rickey is right. She is undeniably talented but we all know she is still asian, and we all know that majority of the voters are whites. This is the truth and it's what happens year in andyear out. It's hard to swallow but hey, it is the real world.

Joystickenvy
Joystickenvy

I'm going to operate on the theroy that the producers don't want another wgwg and will push a girl through, so here's my list: 13. Jeremy 12. Jermaine 11. Erika 10. Deandre 9. Joshua 8. Skylar 7. Heejun 6. Elise (this season's "shock" elimination) 5. Shannon 4. Hollie 3. Colton 2. Phil Phil 1. Jessica Jessica and Hollie or shannon could swap spots depending on whether the fundy vote is more powerful than the "ethnic" vote.

XL
XL

I agree with your list. I might switch Jessica and Hollie depending on their momentum. I just don't know if a WGWG can be beaten on Idol anymore.

Farseer
Farseer

Hmm Ricky.. My top five has some overlap but not the same.

I put Jeremy Rosado and Joshua Ledet in the top five.

 

So top five is:

- Joshua Ledet

- Hollie Cavanagh

- Colton Dixon

- P2

- Jeremy Rosado.

 

I admit Jessica Sanchez could sneak into the top 5 but like you said, she won't win.

 

From what I see, the past three winners - Kris Allen, Lee Dewyze and Scotty McCreery have been able to give heartfelt, moving, touching performances. 

 

The only ones I see being able to do that are Joshua, Hollie, Colton (with his amazing piano skills) and Jeremy.

 

Jessica is skilled but lacks that certain something.

 

 

 

jlscott13
jlscott13

For next week, I just wanna know who's gonna sing "I Will Always Love You." Everyone knows it's gonna happen. lol

script7
script7

So my question is..which singers will be able to adapt to all the different themes the best and why? And does anyone know what the theme is for next week?

brad3688
brad3688

@Airaheta1fan @Cooksongrl I'll reserve judgement on placement, but I would put Jessica and Elise ahead of Hollie.

chomzloh
chomzloh

I don't get why everyone's so sure Phil will win... Sure, he follows the WGWG, frau-baiting formula to a T, but viewers are bound to be sick of that stereotype by now. I'm pretty sure there'll be a female winner this season, since none the guys outside of Phil really have the fanbase and vocal chops to win it.

 

My prediction is that the guys, unlike last season, will go quickly early on, leaving only Phil, Colton, and possibly Jermaine to fight out the girls. A possible final four IMO would be Elise, Jessica, Phil, and either Hollie or Shannon. Elise has the undeniable talent and the casual voter appeal, Jessica has a rock-solid fanbase amongst a certain ethnic group and crossover appeal thanks to her strong R&B-tinged voice, Phil has a unique style (at least amongst this group) and the female vote, and the Hollie/Shannon duel will probably come down to who gives the stronger performances.

 

Can't say any of this for sure, though. To the producer's credit, they've put together an impressive Top 13 will no real standouts, leaving things very much up to how well the contestants perform from week to week. And that's exactly how it should be.

fds
fds

i like your top 10 prediction, which is going tour.

DeeDavis
DeeDavis

Rickey you wrote that Jessica would not win because of the decline of urban viewers?

 

Where are the stats that urban viewers are now not watching idol?

 

 

chessguy99
chessguy99

I think your off on this. Hollie was way over hyped in the semis, probably to make sure she was blonde girl to make it and not Haley or Hallie.

Alansky
Alansky

HolIie for the top 2? I don't think so.  think Jessica and Philip for the top 2. The power of Asian voters all over the U.S. will be harnessed for Jessica. Unless the Asian votes get split between Hee Jun and Jessica, then Hee Jun has to go early.

fuckhead
fuckhead

 @phatseven That's exactly the way I look at it.  After they all perform this week we will have a true picture.  I have already laid out my points in the pool, but they can be changed before elimination night.  Interesting nik you have.

realphill
realphill

 @katekt yes! hollie to win! but i just cant see it happening, never ever.

vjwilkinson
vjwilkinson

 @Mikhail XOIs Shannon going to sing "God Bless the U.S.A." the way KLC did? Ugh--can't imagine anyone except other teens voting for this girl.

 

takakupo
takakupo

 @Mikhail XO Disagree about the Shanon win. She doesn't have the aptitude for song selection or the integrity for a decent melody of the songs she sings. Haven't seen a single spark from her the entire time she's been on the show.

 

If a girl wins then it's going to be one of the top 3 which are Elise, Hollie or Jessica. And I really don't think Phil is getting that far. You were in a real hurry today Mikhail. Must have been an exciting date XD

takakupo
takakupo

 @jlscott13 They should have just made the entire night Whitney Houston. To split it up into girls for Houston and boys for Stevie Wonder is utterly...well, it's dumb. If the season 7 guys could handle Dolly Parton and not sound gay or whatever the producers are afraid of then they can tackle Houston and be bull fighters. Pretty upset over this.

fuckhead
fuckhead

 @script7 The theme for this week is Stevie Wonder songs for the guys, and Whitney Houston songs for the girls.

crackinthewall
crackinthewall

 @chomzloh I'll believe it when I see it, being sick of WGWG that is. Its been four consecutive years of WGWG win and judging from the Top 13, there are no strong male contestants and the females will most likely cannibalize each other's votes. Like you said, there are no real standouts. Problem is, they're pretty much lackluster compared to previous Idol seasons. Jessica is good but good luck with her winning. I don't think America (or the producers for the conspiracy theorists out there) is prepared to have someone like her win AI at this stage. 

Klope62
Klope62 moderator

 @DeeDavis Look it up. Lol...they're gone primarily to X Factor and even the Voice. Just look at our Top 24, it's pretty obvious that it's missing quite a bit of color.

Rickey
Rickey moderator

 @chessguy99 Shannon, Elise and Erika are blonde. What are you talking about.

crackinthewall
crackinthewall

 @Alansky I don't think Heejun will make it past the Top 7 but its no guarantee that the Asian and Latina votes will automatically go to Jessica after he leaves. 

script7
script7

 @WaynoCoaster Wow Stevie is always dangerous.it's best to not try and sound anything like Stevie..Be original..I think Philx2 will do great with that..I'm predicting he will do "Superstitious" with  guitar of course.  Jermaine I'm guessing will do "All is fair in Love". Girls will have to fight over "I Will Always Love You" I guess..

DeeDavis
DeeDavis

Actually the problem with the X-factor was not that they needed newer judges, but that they did not have a viable Country singer.

DeeDavis
DeeDavis

 @Klope62 The top 13, almost half are minorities; Jermaine, Jeremy, Joshua, Heejun, Jessica and Deandre. That is six out of 13.

Rickey
Rickey moderator

 @crackinthewall  @Alansky "The power of Asian voters all over the U.S. will be harnessed for Jessica" fantasy world!

 

She would have to change her name and face to Lin for that to happen.

Rickey
Rickey moderator

 @Klope62  @DeeDavis This is better:

 

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/03/01/american-idol-ratings-in-200-cities-have-live-viewers-become-the-biggest-fans/122662/

 

New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Philadelphia, San Diego, Chicago - Below the national average.

 

Greensboro, NC, Atlanta, GA, Charleston, WV, Dallas, TX, Albany, GA, Nashville, TN. Birmingham AL, Mobile AL, Memphis TN, St. Louis MO, Columbus GA, South Bend IN, Kansas City MO, New Orleans LA 139 - WAY ABOVE the national average.

 

I'm not going into the "not having a viable country singer" part because that was just stupid.

Klope62
Klope62 moderator

 @DeeDavis And just in case you do not get the significance of that link, I'll paste the important ones:

 

"The X Factor is an especially big new hit among Teens – it’s the #2 new series among Teens this season, second only to New Girl"

 

"The X Factor is one of this season’s Top 5 new shows among ethnic minorities and is this season’s #1 show overall among African American adults age 18-49"

 

"Among Hispanic Adults 18-49, The X Factor-Wed and Thurs are the #2 and #3 top-rated new shows this season (behind only New Girl, which is #1)"

 

" FOX won the November Sweep among Adults 18-49."

 

"We’ve seen an average of 25-30 trending terms on Twitter related to TXF on performance show nights – this is significantly more trending than you see with other TV shows."

 

Oh..guess what. That's most of the "urban" population.

Klope62
Klope62 moderator

 @DeeDavis http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2011/12/23/the-x-factor-season-1-key- stats/114629 ...and you are done. Lol

 

Otherwise, it still doesn't change the fact that they were far and few between in the TOP 24. Alas, they are tokens. You totally just used the "I had a friend that was black and there was a another in my class that I talked to, I'm not racist!!!" type of argument and it's so superficial that I'm not going to even bother. Open your eyes Dee Dee.

DeeDavis
DeeDavis

 @Mikhail XO  @Klope62 Latinos make up a larger minority than AA.What is URM? So there is one Asian one half Asian, half Latina, one Latino and three AA guys

 

X-factor had no Latinos, no Asians....NONE, zero, zilch. Yet Latinos are a larger minority population than AA

crackinthewall
crackinthewall

 @Mikhail XO Filipino and you'd be surprised how many Sanchez exist in the Philippines. Filipino and Mexico share similar roots so its no wonder that surnames that sounds Mexican/Latina are also common in the Philippines. 

 @amor825 You might want to check your geography notes. Last I remember, Mexico is just beyond the northern borders of the US. Her father is Mexican and her mom is a Filipina. Her ethnicity therefore is only half-Asian but why should it matter? She is an American citizen.

byte777
byte777

 @Mikhail XO Most Filipinos have spanish surnames because their country was occupied by the Spaniards for over a 100 years. But they are considered Asians because their country is in Asia.

Rickey
Rickey moderator

 @Mikhail XO  @JerikuBaruyotso  @amor825 See what I mean Mikhail? Amor is basing Jessica's heritage purely on surname alone.

 

FYI the relatives who were with Jessica at the auditions weren't all of Filipino heritage. You should watch the replay.

 

Jessica's father is Mexican-American and is in the Navy. San Diego has the biggest naval base in the US.

Rickey
Rickey moderator

 @Mikhail XO  @JerikuBaruyotso  @amor825 The Philippines was a Spanish colony for 300 years so Spanish surnames are the most common surnames in the country. That's why everytime there's somebody on Idol who has a Spanish surname, I am ALWAYS asked if that person is Pinoy. And thus: OMG Is she Pinoy?

amor825
amor825

 @Mikhail XO  @Rickey So many Filipinos have Spanish surnames.  Sanchez being one of them.  I don't rely too much on Google.  What I'm definite about is that those people accompanying Jessica at the auditions and the other stages were Filipinos.  Are you Filipino, Mikhail?  I am, and I know lots of Sanchezes.

amor825
amor825

 @Mikhail XO Are you kidding?  There is a Sanchez in all streets in the Philippines.  I had classmates all through college surnamed  Sanchez.  Many Filipinos have Spanish surnames, FYI.  (I think you already know that.)

 

And as for her father being Mexican, I wouldn't bank on it.  That face could only belong to a person with Malay blood.  Don't rely too much on Google.  LOL! 

JerikuBaruyotso
JerikuBaruyotso

 @Mikhail XO  @amor825  @Rickey if i can add, most filipinos with hispanic heritage (like me) actually came from mexico. so what's my point here? i don't see any difference with her mexican and filipino sides. we should all support her and have her win.

amor825
amor825

 @Mikhail XO The Asian half of her heritage?  She is a full-blooded Asian! The only part of her that's American is citizenship!  And I don't think Asians will vote for an Asian just because.  Even if I'm Asian, my money (or vote, and I do vote) is on Hollie Cavanagh.

crackinthewall
crackinthewall

 @Rickey  @Alansky Not to mention that her name sounds more Latina than Asian. If any, Filipinos will surely make her being a Filipino a big deal in the Philippines. I don't think it would make a difference though. We can't exactly vote for her.